A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
